Fraser River sockeye are tracking to have their worst return on record. They are divided into four management groups – Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer, and Lates. Most of the 44 conservation units within the four timing groups are expected to return at poor levels in 2024. Considering each management group has numerous distinct populations with divergent productivity and run-timing, and that the migration timing of the four management groups overlap each other, Fraser sockeye management can be like facing an immense jigsaw puzzle where none of the pieces quite fit with one another. Recent environmental trends have added to the management challenges and increased forecast uncertainty for most component populations. Further complicating management, the Big Bar slide still looms large over this year’s return, as the parents of this generation of spawners was heavily impacted by the slide. Making matters worse, drought conditions are anticipated to continue throughout the watershed. It is little wonder that the Fraser River sockeye fishery is not expected to open in 2024.

This is an off-cycle year for Fraser pink salmon.

Fraser chums returning this fall are forecast to return below their management objective. It will be interesting to see if Fraser chums benefit from the same positive ocean conditions that appear to have benefitted summer chums. The only Fraser chum salmon fishery that is recommended by Ocean Wise is a small terminal ESSR fishery near Chehalis that, due to its terminal nature, avoids intercepting critically endangered Fraser steelhead and depleted coho.

Fraser chinooks are grouped into Fraser 4-2s, Spring and Summer 5-2s, Fraser 4-1s, and fall 4-1s. The difference is chinooks designated with a ‘2’ spend their first year after hatching in freshwater before migrating to the ocean. The forecast for 4-2s and 5-2s is poor. The 4-2 migration peaks in June in the Fraser River. The 5-2 migration peaks in late July. However, there is considerable overlap because, similar to Fraser sockeye, each of these stock groupings consists of multiple component populations with varied productivity and migration timing. Hence, you will find 4-2 and 5-2 Fraser chinook both returning between March and mid-August. Stocks from both groupings are classified as endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. These fish are encountered in mixed-stock marine recreational fisheries from southwest Vancouver Island seaward of Barkley through to the Fraser River, very limited in-river First Nations Treaty and Food fisheries, and by IUU (Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated) fisheries in the Fraser River). There is next-to-no commercial harvest of these populations because they tend to migrate directly in from the Pacific Ocean through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, though they are caught as bycatch in West Coast trawl fisheries. Test fisheries suggest these populations are returning even less than forecast. Many of these populations will be further impacted by the Big Bar slide and the expected drought conditions.

Fraser 4-1s are forecast to be abundant and will likely support commercial, First Nations, and recreational fisheries from the Alaskan Border through to their spawning grounds in and around the Thompson and Shuswap River and tributaries. Their migration timing is from mid-July to mid-September. These fish spawn below the Big Bar slide and therefore remain unaffected by it.

Fraser fall (Harrison) chinook are the only Fraser chinook population with a biologically based escapement goal (the number of fish required to make it back to the spawning grounds). Unlike Alaska, or the southern states, DFO does not have biologically based escapement goals for most salmon populations. The reason Fraser fall chinook have an escapement goal is that they are managed by the Pacific Salmon Treaty between Canada and the U.S. Fraser fall chinook are classified as ‘threatened’ under COSEWIC. Fraser fall chinook exceeded their escapement goal in 2023. They are forecast to return below target in 2024, but the 2023 returns may bring improvements in productivity going forward.

Most recreational fisheries require chinook that don’t meet specific size be released. Similarly, undersized and wild (unmarked) coho must be released. Recent studies by UBC researchers (funded by the BC Salmon Restoration and Innovation Fund) that electronically tagged and tracked released salmon in several B.C. recreational fisheries found the actual mortality suffered by released fish is much higher than the estimates employed by DFO when making management decisions. The study found up to 40 per cent of released adult chinook may die before spawning.

Interior Fraser coho are classified as threatened. They return from late August through September and are therefore vulnerable to being encountered in any mixed-stock recreational or commercial fishery along their migratory path. Canadian total mortalities are limited to 3-5 per cent but monitoring and assessments are poor, and release mortality underestimated. There is limited data on lower Fraser coho, but their status is of growing concern for First Nations in the area. Abundant coho returns to some south coast rivers are masking low abundance elsewhere and driving recreational fishing pressure that is impacting depleted populations.

Steelhead returning to the Thompson and Chilcotin Rivers are past being endangered. They are on the cusp of being extirpated. Recent rolling commercial closures intended to protect returning steelhead will remain in effect in 2024.

Enhanced ECVI chinook, on the other hand, are expected to continue to return in good numbers. They are harvested, along with endangered ECVI chinook populations, in mixed-stock recreational catch-and-release fisheries throughout the Strait of Georgia.